But I said “nearly” all the forecasts are hollow; one strikes me as being very realistic: that a nuclear Iran would set off a Middle East nuclear arms race, which would be highly destabilizing, escalate tensions and create the possibility that somebody would start a nuclear war simply out of fear of being attacked first.

If Iran gets nuclear weapons, it makes perfect sense to me that Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria and other countries around here would want to follow suit ASAP. In fact, even if Iran doesn’t get nuclear weapons, I see no reason why other ambitious countries, in the Middle East and elsewhere, wouldn’t want to build or otherwise acquire their own. All the best countries have them, don’t they? (Except Germany and Japan, but that could change one day.)

This is not good; nuclear proliferation is very dangerous, especially in a place like the Middle East, and it should be prevented if possible. So Israel and the U.S. do have one solid argument for why Iran must be prevented from going nuclear at all costs.

The problem is – who the hell is Israel or the U.S. to tell anyone not to go nuclear? Who is Israel or the U.S. to start a war with Iran for the sake of enforcing nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East?

The nuclear arms race in the Middle East was started by Israel over 40 years ago. If Israel and the U.S. want to stop it, let Israel give up its nukes and sign a non-proliferation agreement with Iran, Egypt and the rest of the region.

I can understand, though, why Israel, even with the best of intentions, would not want to do that – for fear that an enemy country would cheat, build the bomb and have Israel at its mercy.

Fine. If Israel wants to keep its nukes, it is well within its rights to do so, in my opinion. But it is not within its rights to bomb other countries or kill their scientists because they want to build nukes, too – even if those other countries’ leaders publicly wish Israel to disappear and deny the Holocaust, or give arms to Hamas and Hezbollah. If every country that gave arms to another country’s enemies became a legitimate target for attack, there would be no peace anywhere, anytime, certainly not in Israel or the U.S.

Israel and America may think they have the right to bomb Iran because, after all, they’re good and Iran is bad, Iran wants to kill and enslave people while Israel and the U.S. only want people to be free and happy. But this is a tough sell when they’re the ones threatening to start the war, not Iran. And even if we set the whole issue of Iran aside, there are a lot of people in the world who can make a strong case against Israel’s and America’s claims to be forces for only goodness, peace and freedom.

The chance of Israel attacking Iran before the November 6 U.S. election now is nil, but the chance of America doing it it with or without Israel’s help not too long after the election is considerable. In Iran, the centrifuges are still spinning, as Bibi likes to say, and Western powers aren’t going to just sit back and take it like wimps – they’re kicking the Iranians out, they’re cranking up the sanctions.

We are still on track for a U.S./Israeli strike on Iran, which, aside from being a war of aggression with unimaginable consequences, is no way to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The 57 Muslim nations will not accept that the region’s one Jewish country can hold the exclusive franchise on nukes and bomb any country that “violates” it, and with the backing of the world’s first and greatest nuclear power – the only country that ever dropped the bomb, and on two cities, yet.

If Israel and America want to prevent a Middle East nuclear arms race, let Israel give up its nukes first. And if Israel is unwilling to do that, let Israel and America stop complaining about Iran – or anyone else.

Desque’n 1974 la Organización de les Naciones Xuníes aprobase la Resolución 3263 (XXIX), afalando l’establecimientu nel Oriente Mediu d’una zona llibre d’armamentu nuclear y d’otres armes de desaniciu, foron abondes les ocasiones nes que les Naciones Xuníes y otros muérganos internacionales atesteriaron nel mesmu llamáu… y otres tantes les que fracasaron nel so enfotu. La cabera, en 2010, cuando la Conferencia de Revisión del Tratáu “Non Proliferation Treatment” (NPT,  pola sigla n’inglés) contra’l medru nuclear entainó la convocatoria d’una conferencia en 2012 pa poner en marcha’l procesu y l’entamu foi, una vez más, boicoteáu por Israel y los Estaos Xuníos.

La declaración del Oriente Mediu como zona llibre d’armamentu nuclear implicaría la xuntura d’Israel al TNP en calidá d’estáu non nuclear y l’abellugu de toes les sos instalaciones baxo’l control de l’Axencia Internacional de la Enerxía Atómico (AIEA), lo mesmo que ya ficieren el restu de los estaos de la rexón.

Si Israel abriera les sos instalaciones a la vixilancia de los inspectores de la AIEA, el Conseyu de Seguridá de la Organización de les Naciones Xuníes (CS) podría conocer la importancia real del peligru qu’esos arsenales supuestamente secretos representen y taría obligáu a tomar les midíes afayadizes pa eliminar l’amenaza que planea sobre la feble paz de la zona.

Sicasí nada nun ye como debería. Cola so fata ya interesada irresponsabilidá, el Conseyu de Seguridá dexa coles manes llibres a Israel p’aumentar la so potencia nuclear fuera de cualesquier control, astiénse d’apurar el cumplimientu de les sos propies resoluciones y revela la so incapacidá pa esconxurar una catástrofe de consecuencies fáciles de prever.

Pero esta pasividá irresponsable y los turbios intereses que la determinen nun tienen que ser pilancos qu’impidan a la ciudadanía tomar nes sos manes la guarda de la paz y reclamar al Conseyu de Seguridá, con voz plural y unánime, que tome les midíes afayadízes pa obligar a Israel a abrir los sos arsenales a la vixilancia de l’AIEA.